China Motorization Trends: new EMBARQ publication presents policy options in a world of transport challenges
Tuesday, January 17, 2006 | Washington, DC, United States
EMBARQ's Dr. Lee Schipper, Director of Research, and Wei-Shiuen Ng, Research Analyst, contributed a chapter to the WRI report, “Growing in the Greenhouse: Protecting the Climate by Putting Development First,” published in December 2005. They examined two major emerging constraints on transport in the fast-growing urban cities of China: oil supply and urban infrastructure. EMBARQ’s engagement in China includes technical assistance with demonstration projects and financing, as well as policy research and analysis together with empowered local and national leaders.
Bell Tower in Xi'an, China
The China Motorization Trends study focuses on automobile technology, alternative fuel, and mobility choices that are available to China, as well as policy measures that could be adopted to reduce the transport burden on oil use and greenhouse gas emissions. The trends of motorization in China and current transport, fuel and energy policies were reviewed and future policy and regulation improvements that could encourage the use of alternative technologies in the transport sector were discussed using examples from Europe, Japan and the U.S.
Three transport energy scenarios, Road Ahead, Oil Saved, and Integrated Transport were used to illustrate potential motorization trends given different policy, vehicle technology, alternative fuel, and driving behavior assumptions. In the Integrated Transport scenario, where small gasoline and electric cars are the highest in use, oil consumption is only 12 percent of its value in Road Ahead by 2020, while carbon emissions from transportation are 79 percent lower when compared to Road Ahead. Policy such as vehicle technology requirements, taxation, road pricing, and the prioritization of public and non-motorized transport are some of the suggested measures if China wants to reduce its energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions contributed by its expanding transport sector.
Shanghai Overpass
China’s significant economic development over the past two decades has led to its rapid growth in industrialization, urbanization and subsequently, motorization. Its economic improvements have led to an increase in disposable personal income, while the increase in population has also resulted in additional consumer demand. Finally, the opening of the automobile market to foreign investors since the 1980s has created one of the largest automobile markets in the world. It is thus not surprising that the demand for private motorization has increased substantially over the past two decades, contributing to about 20 percent of the total increase in motor vehicles, where the total number of registered vehicles is now 27 million.
The externalities of motorization could be costly and include undesirable environmental and social consequences that could be reduced by various technology and policy measures if decisions are made promptly. Air and noise pollution due to transportation are now common in many urban cities, where air qualities are beyond national standards. Congestion and traffic safety have also become serious problems. Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, though not significantly emitted by the relatively small transport sector, have the potential to increase as motorization continues to grow. With the expanding burdens of energy security and environmental pollution, China is increasingly concerned with its growth in the transport sector and the need for fuel consumption diversity. Current policies are drafted to encourage energy efficiency, together with stringent fuel economy and quality standards imposed by the Government of China.
China Motorization Trends - Chapter 4 of Full Report.pdf
Please click here to follow link to WRI website for the full WRI report "Growing in the Greenhouse: Policies and Measures for Sustainable Development while Protecting the Climate."